Biggest winner in Eastleigh was Labour--!

Sshh! Don’t say it out loud. But the biggest winner in the election yesterday was – Labour

(Not satire – it’s the UK today)

Electoral strategists from all parties are concerned about one thing and one thing only. How their party can win the next election.

And although you won’t hear them admitting it, Labour strategists will have been surprisingly happy with the election result in Eastleigh yesterday.

Come off it Tom. Labour came 4th FFS!

I know I know – but their reasoning goes something like this.

To win an overall majority at the next general election, Labour need three things to happen.

First of all they need the Liberal Democrat vote to collapse in their favour in Lib Dem/Labour marginals.

But secondly, they conversely need the Liberal Democrat vote to hold up in Lib Dem/Tory marginals.

Thirdly, they need to be doing well enough to win at least a few Tory/Labour marginals.

If all three of those things happen – then Labour will be set to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons at the next general election.

Last night was a big indicator that all three of those things for the Labour dream scenario might be happening.

There is already plenty of evidence to show the Liberal Democrat vote in LibDem/Labour marginals is collapsing in Labour’s favour.

And last night’s result in Eastleigh shows the LibDem vote is holding up well in LibDem/Tory marginals.

Also, the recent Corby by-election shows Labour is in line to take some seats from the Tories in Labour/Tory marginals.

And although Labour might in public berate the spectacular rise of UKIP – who despite their success yesterday are unlikely to win any seats at a general election and look set to split the Tory vote – it is in reality the icing on the electoral strategy cake for Labour.

All of which means there may have been some surreptitious popping of champagne corks by Labour strategists last night.

Pride's Purge