David Cameron is preparing to carry out a far wider reshuffle of his government than had previously been thought.
Several
sources in Whitehall have told me to expect substantial changes when
the prime minister reshapes the team that he will lead in to the
election.
The
consensus until now was that apart from a few Cabinet retirements, most
of the changes would focus on refreshing the lower ministerial ranks.
But I am told Mr Cameron is thinking big in the reshuffle that he is
expected to carry out early next week.
One source said: “I think it is going to be bigger than we thought.”
Another said: “Last time was a mini reshuffle. This will be a proper reshuffle. Prepare for rabbits out of a hat.”
Reshuffle
speculation is by definition just that. Most of the decisions are known
only to the prime minister, his chief of staff and the cabinet
secretary, and many have yet to be made.
But here are a few unsubstantiated predictions shared with me by ministers, MPs and officials:
Going down?
First of all, it is pretty clear that some old stagers are moving on. MPs say chief whip Sir George Young is
openly looking forward to his departure, noting in tea room discussions
that this would be the fourth time he had been sacked as a minister
during his career.
Is Ken Clarke’s long frontbench career about to come to an end?
Is Esther McVey about to join the cabinet?
He was of course brought back into government out of retirement to replace Andrew Mitchell when “plebgate” struck. The minister without portfolio, Ken Clarke, told
a House of Commons dinner earlier this week about his plans “for the
fortnight in which I am likely to remain in government”.
But
there is also speculation that other more experienced members of the
Cabinet might be moved on, such as the Communities Secretary Eric Pickles and the leader of the House of Commons, Andrew Lansley. Some MPs expect the Welsh Secretary David Jones to be replaced by his deputy Stephen Crabb. There is even some talk of the welfare secretary Iain Duncan Smith doing a job swap with the defence secretary Philip Hammond.
Going up?
So who might move on and up? Some MPs expect the deputy chief whipGreg Hands to
replace Sir George Young but others are lobbying against this, saying
it would be wrong for someone so close to George Osborne to hold such an
important disciplinary role within the party.
Some expect the former Home Office minister, Mark Harper, who resigned because his cleaner was an illegal immigrant, might return to government as deputy chief whip.
One MP said: “Mark is very popular. He resigned quickly. And he has been popping up in a lot of obscure debates recently.”
Another MP said he expected Eric Pickles to become chief whip, the culture secretary Sajid Javid to move to communities and local government, and Esther McVey to enter the Cabinet as culture secretary.
As well as Ms McVey, Mr Cameron is also hoping to promote more women, with speculation focusing on Liz Truss,Nicky Morgan, Amber Rudd, Priti Patel and Penny Mordaunt.
