According to every opinion poll, the Lib Dems are a shadow of the party that fought the last general election. It now appears only a small number of deluded die-hards are prepared to vote for them — and I suspect even some of these will change their minds.
This is not surprising, considering the views of party leader Nick Clegg, which are completely out of tune with voters.
For example, this week he refused to countenance any temporary withdrawal from the European Convention of Human Rights to enable the deportation of hate preacher Abu Qatada.
Tipping point? The Coalition is badly split over Abu Qatada
Mr Clegg threatens that if David Cameron pulls out of the convention to allow the extremist Islamist to be sent to Jordan, the Coalition could collapse.
Of course, as a result of the insidious Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, there isn’t due to be a general election until May 2015. But there are possibilities that could mean that one is held much sooner.
For example, Mr Cameron, who has said his ‘blood boils’ over Abu Qatada’s continued presence in Britain, could use this as the perfect opportunity to exploit his Coalition partners’ weakness.
He could resign as Prime Minister over the issue. Ed Miliband would be invited to form his own coalition but if that failed, an election would be called at once.
Mr Clegg threatens that if David Cameron pulls out of the convention to allow the extremist Islamist to be sent to Jordan, the Coalition could collapse
Mr Cameron would undoubtedly ask whether the public wants serious criminals to be allowed to stay here or be kicked out of the country and be handed over to a foreign government that wants to put them on trial.
By forcing an election because of his determination to keep such a grotesque and evil man as Abu Qatada in Britain, Mr Clegg and his Lib Dems would be ridiculed by voters and be consigned to oblivion.
Also, the Tories could exploit Labour’s unreadiness to fight an election.
Mr Cameron, who has said his 'blood boils' over Abu Qatada's continued presence in Britain, could use this as the perfect opportunity to exploit his Coalition partners¿ weakness
Also, Mr Miliband has failed to identify with the public mood over the Government’s welfare reforms.
Meanwhile, although the Tories have presided over a pretty poor government, things are starting to improve.
We have avoided a triple-dip recession (just), and the Tories have milked the glorious memory of Lady Thatcher as a staunch Conservative for all it was worth.
The Tories may be weak in the North and almost non-existent in Scotland, but similarly, Labour has failed to make much impact in the South. What’s more, the thought of Mr Miliband moving the party further to the lunatic Left will worry the hundreds of thousands of floating voters.
Indeed, this week he said his policies would be more Left-wing than those of any leader since Neil Kinnock.
Clearly, the challenge of the next election is the reason behind Mr Cameron’s reorganisation of his circle of advisers.
His Australian pollster Lynton Crosby is busy plotting a strategy to re-connect with the Tories’ disillusioned core vote. Although he is planning for a contest two years ahead, if it happened in four or six weeks, the party could be ready.
As for Mr Clegg, he clearly believes that he will benefit by making threats over the treatment of Abu Qatada. But he is totally misguided.
In truth, he is offering a marvellous opportunity that many Tory MPs would be only too grateful to seize. Ultimately, for Nick Clegg it could turn out to be a suicidal move in what has been a mistake-littered career. Tipping point? The Coalition is badly split over Abu Qatada.
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