My prediction of the early political demise of IDS was wide of the mark: the Prime Minister has kept him at the DWP.
However, IDS' deputy, Mark Hoban, has not been so fortunate; the erstwhile Employment Minister - the public face of the Work Programme and the Work Capability Assessment - has returned to the backbenches.
Meanwhile Esther McVey has gone from holding the disability portfolio to Minister of State at the DWP, to be joined by Mike Penning at the same rank. It has not been said if there will be a specific minister for people with disabilities.
Although Mark Hoban always put a brave face on things, the Work Programme has been a colossal waste of time and money, while the WCA has been all that and more.
Esther McVey has been, in my opinion, entirely unconvincing in every interview that I have heard her speak in, but she has shown a dogged loyalty when facing the cold wind of reality (and she has the demographics the PM is looking for).
The new boy is a bit of an unknown quantity. He is a former soldier and fireman, so maybe we can expect a down-to-earth, no-nonsense approach from him - though he has a lot to catch up on.
On the other side of the house, Liam Byrne is no longer the Work and Pensions spokesman for Labour.
My prediction?
- Labour will go on the attack. The battlelines are now drawn for a war over welfare!
