Reblogged from Michael Meacher MP:
With 19 months to go, it’s hard to see how the Tories can pull off a win in
May 2015. There are at least 6 reasons which argue strongly against it.
First, though the polls currently are showing a Labour lead nationally of from O
to 5%, the Labour lead in the marginals where the overall result will be
disproportionately decided is very much greater. Second, there is the
demographic tilt: in the Home Counties and the south-east the Tory party piles
up huge majorities of up to 25,000 or more, while the Labour vote is more evenly
spread. As a consequence the Tories need to have a 7% poll lead over Labour to
get an overall majority, while Labour only needs a 1% lead over the Tories to
win a majority over all other parties. It is a very tall order for the Tories
to overcome a hurdle of this magnitude. Then, third, there’s the black and
Asian inbuilt bias towards Labour, around 70-80% nationally. This section of
the population continues to increase faster in numbers than the white host
community, and there are some 20-30 seats in the country where that factor could
be influential in determining the result in the marginals.
Fourth, a great deal of the fiscal austerity is back-end loaded and is still
to come. There is as much as £40bn of cuts awaiting the victims of this
prolonged impoverishment before 2015, and whilst it is remarkable that there has
not so far been the unrest and riots that might have been expected, it is hard
to see this continuing for another year and a half without an explosion.
No-one foresaw the poll tax riots that put paid to Thatcher, and the same may
well apply again. Fifth, there’s the ‘recovery’ which might be thought to be
the Tories’ strongest card. But two factors suggest otherwise. If the
recovery was really gathering pace as the Tory tabloids continually boast, one
would expect the quarterly growth rate to be slowly but steadily rising. But
it isn’t: according to the NIESR the 3rd quarter growth fell slightly compared
with the 2nd quarter and, more concerning still, the ONS showed manufacturers’
output fell 1.2% against forecasts of a 0.4% rise. The other factor is even
more crucial. In 2010 the OBR thought that real business investment, after
falling by a stunning 24% during the recession, would return to pre-crisis
levels by mid 2013. Instead it has dropped by another 10%. That is very
disturbing for Osborne, and suggests the recovery is very fragile and may well
peter out by mid 2015.
One further uncertainty which could turn toxic quite quickly lies in the
warning given today by Paul Tucker in his valedictory report to the Bank of
England. He cautioned that the world today is at a similar stage to 2004 when
investors were searching for higher yields after the Fed interest rate cuts.
He points out, very presciently, that after a long period of interest rates on
the floor, dangerous levels of leverage may be building up in poorly regulated
sectors of the financial system, i.e. hedge funds and other non-bank
institutions. If that were to blow, with a second financial crash in the
ripple after the first 5 years before, the Tory goose would be well and truly
cooked.
