Mystic Greg Has Another Go
Undeterred by wrongly predicting earlier this year that IDS would be reshuffled after the Tory conference in October, I thought I'd gaze into my crystal ball a second time and see what the future might hold between now and the early part of next year.
Dr Litchfield's Diagnosis
The previous Harrington reviews were published in November, so I see Paul Litchfield's thoughts on the WCA being announced in the next ten days. I don't foresee a knockout, but he will probably land a few blows by drawing attention to:
- The difficulty in gauging fluctuating conditions with a snapshot test
- The lack of medical information at the Scrutiny stage
The PwC Report
The external auditors will have been keeping ministers informed along the way, but I predict that the formal report will be completed and - quelle surprise! - the WCA process is riddled with flaws.
Lord Freud Will Make His Autumn Announcement
In July the Minister for Welfare Reform announced a series of measures designed to improve the WCA. He said at the time: "We will come back to Parliament in the autumn with a further update". As the leaves are now falling from the trees and parliament breaks up for its Christmas hols on the 19th of December, that gives you a month, m'lud.
The glass is not clear on this one, but I can just make out a pair of eyebrows and I can hear a voice, dull and weedy. It's saying "We have found who's to blame and it's..." (but then alas the mists close in again).
IDS Appears Before The Work And Pensions Select Committee
(What's with this guy's name, by the way? His name is George Smith - the Iain and Duncan are just middle names).
Anyway, on the 9th of December he's scheduled to appear before the parliamentary 'watchdog' (as if!) to be asked a few undemanding questions about Universal Credit and Statistics - unless Sheila Gilmore MP is there to give him a good grilling.
But he will have to be prepared for an ambush on the WCA, which makes me think that the DWP will make an announcement before that date; then he can elaborate the department's official position before the committee.
It's Christmaaas!!!
Having dropped the bombshell - the WCA has been a disaster - Westminster goes on holiday and we all get distracted by Christmas. The Coalition hopes we have forgotten all about it by the time normal life resumes on the 6th of January.
Goodbye, Mr Smith
Early next year, I foresee IDS returning to the backbenches as "the most determined champion for social justice" the Conservative Party has ever had. The Coalition will then carry on with their damage-control exercise over the WCA, PIP and DLA as best they can.
Adios Atos?
My crystal ball tells me that Atos will think very hard before renewing any of their disability assessment contracts as they come up for renewal. And few other companies will want the contracts either.
