Homelessness: 'If you think it's bad now, it's about to get worse'

Figures show a 6% rise in homelessness applications. Welfare reform and the closure of services will exacerbate the problem

Chancellor George Osborne has more than the economic forecast to be gloomy about, as homelessness figures are also rising. Photograph: Steve Back / Rex Features

The gloomy economic forecast from the chancellor last week has been capped by even more depressing news on homelessness numbers. The latest government figures on statutory homelessness in England show that 29,060 applications were made to councils for help with homelessness between October and December 2012 – a 6% increase on the same period in 2011.

If the government's economic forecast holds, the continued rise in homelessness shows is unlikely to stop anytime soon. If this wasn't worrying enough, the signs are that local councils are struggling to house the four in 10 cases they accept to help.

The use of B&Bs – traditionally are seen as the last resort in terms of housing – has risen by more than a quarter. There are now 4,000 households living in B&Bs in England. In London, more than 400 families spent over six weeks in a B&B, breaking government guidelines.

If this was not bad enough, the number of councils placing households in other council areas has risen by 32%. Some councils have run out of social housing and are choosing to uproot families just so they can have somewhere to live.

These figures confirm the extent that the availability of affordable local housing is becoming increasingly squeezed, especially in the capital. With London councils seeing a 22% jump in homelessness, it is unlikely they will cope well with further increases in demand.

So what can we do? In the long term, all political parties need to make affordable housing a priority, addressing chronic shortages through increased investment.

Enabling people to access affordable, safe and quality housing is fundamental to tackling homelessness. The plans announced by the chancellor last Wednesday don't go far enough. Funding the building of 30,000 affordable homes, when there are 53,000 families in temporary accommodation shows how much further the government needs to go.

In the short term, councils must do more to prevent people losing their homes in the first place. In the last quarter, almost one in four households became homeless because their short-hold tenancy comes to an end. This is the highest number ever recorded.

The reasons for these tenancies coming to an end it not always clear but it is likely to be a combination of unaffordable rent, arrears or by a landlord deciding that they can make more money renting to someone else. We suspect that plans to pay housing benefit to tenants rather than directly to a landlord could also be putting off some private sector landlords from renting to those on benefits.

However, with the right advice and support we could prevent many more people from ending up homeless. Overwhelmed by demand, councils are increasingly rationing support – only helping those they have a legal duty to help. Because of cuts, many of the advice services that help with debts, landlord mediation and other housing-related support are disappearing.

This does not make sense: when you lose everything, your home is normally the last thing to go. Once you're homeless, everything that you need to get back on your feet – a job, social network, access to everyday services – become more difficult to attain.

The immediate and long-term costs of homelessness are considerable. It is better for residents and the taxpayer if we prevent someone from losing the roof over their head in the first place.

Will this problem get worse? The economic climate has been fuelling homelessness to date but welfare reform could add to the numbers. Private landlords may be less willing to rent to those on benefits. The benefit cap could also make it more difficult for individuals to find somewhere to live, resulting in them going to their councils for help. Will councils be able to cope?

The red flags are already waving. If you think things are bad now, they could be about to get a lot worse.

Jacqui McCluskey is director of policy for Homeless Link

Guardian